TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 22, 6:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on whether his YouTube views exceed certain thresholds. It reflects audience engagement through view counts, providing insight into his popularity and content reach on a given day.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Justin Bieber achieves specific global daily view thresholds on YouTube for September 20, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, and the outcome depends on whether the recorded views surpass that threshold. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The thresholds range incrementally from 14 million to 17 million views. Importantly, YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are for descriptive purposes only, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as comprehensive public forecasts are limited. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and real-time information, potentially offering a more dynamic and accurate prediction than static analyst reports. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to assess all available information and make informed predictions about Justin Bieber’s viewership numbers. Discrepancies between market prices and external forecasts can arise due to differing methodologies or access to unique data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, influence how efficiently prices incorporate new information. Traders aim to profit by identifying discrepancies between their own beliefs and the market price.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s new music releases, collaborations, or public appearances would likely impact viewership expectations. Shifts in social media trends, changes in platform algorithms affecting content visibility, and broader entertainment industry news could also influence trading activity. Unexpected controversies or positive publicity surrounding Justin Bieber could also cause the market to react. Any data suggesting changes in his fan engagement or overall popularity will be closely watched by traders in this market.
