TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 10:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on whether his YouTube views exceed certain thresholds. It reflects audience engagement through view counts, providing insight into his popularity and content reach on the platform.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Justin Bieber achieves specified global daily YouTube view thresholds on September 19, 2026, across multiple markets with incrementally higher targets ranging from 14 million to 17 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location, with results determined using values displayed from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the corresponding threshold is surpassed, with secondary rules clarifying that view counts may vary by location and emphasizing that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products. The rules also note that any references to YouTube charts or associated marks are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, where the aggregated predictions are more accurate than individual estimates. However, analysts may incorporate qualitative factors or insider information not reflected in the market price. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or simply varying interpretations of available data. It’s common to see initial divergence, with the market adjusting as new information emerges and consensus builds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at different price points, indicates the level of agreement among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the likelihood of various view counts for Justin Bieber’s release.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views on Justin Bieber’s release as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will reflect the total views accumulated by the specified date. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contract aligned with the final, verified view count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding Justin Bieber’s promotional activities, such as major television appearances or social media campaigns, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected collaborations or controversies could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, broader trends in music consumption and streaming platform usage could influence expectations. The release date itself, and initial reception to the song, will be key catalysts. Positive or negative reviews, viral trends, and overall fan engagement will all play a role in shaping the market’s trajectory.
