TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 19, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 19, 7:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Justin Bieber's global YouTube view count on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for market resolution. Each threshold represents a different level of viewership that, if exceeded, triggers a positive outcome for that specific market.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 17, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique numerical threshold, ranging from 14 million to 17 million views. If the actual view count exceeds a market's specified threshold, that market resolves positively (Yes). All markets share identical secondary rules regarding data source and disclaimer of YouTube endorsement, ensuring consistent methodology across thresholds. The use of a New York IP address standardizes the data retrieval process, mitigating location-based discrepancies in view count reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Justin Bieber’s viewership. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate forecasting, potentially leading to a more accurate collective prediction than any single analyst's estimate. If pre-event polling data becomes available, it will be interesting to see how the wisdom of the crowd on Kalshi aligns with broader public expectations regarding the number of views this event will garner.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which drives the price fluctuations you see on the dashboard. This dynamic pricing system aims to create a real-time estimate of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views Justin Bieber receives on September 17, 2026, will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from official sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market over the next few years. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s activities, such as new music releases, tours, or public appearances, could significantly impact viewership expectations. Changes in the popularity of the platform where the views are being counted, or broader trends in online video consumption, could also play a role. Unexpected events affecting public attention, or even the release of competing content, could shift sentiment and move this market.
