TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 18, 2026
Closed: Sep 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track Justin Bieber's global YouTube view count on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for different view levels. Each threshold represents a possible outcome based on actual performance, allowing participants to speculate on how popular his content will be that day.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 16, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the view count exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding location-based view count variability and disclaimer language stating that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products. Participants can choose from thirteen different threshold levels ranging from 14 million to 17 million views, allowing for nuanced speculation on the exact scale of viewership.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional analysis, incorporating real-time sentiment and diverse perspectives. While analysts may focus on historical trends or artist popularity, the market aggregates predictions from many individuals, potentially identifying overlooked variables that could impact the final view count. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the 'wisdom of the crowd' diverges from established expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential view counts for Justin Bieber’s content. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for Justin Bieber’s content on September 16, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual view count, determining which traders correctly predicted the outcome. This allows for a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s accuracy, based on publicly available data and widely accepted metrics for measuring video views.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s content strategy, collaborations, or promotional campaigns would likely impact expectations. Unexpected media coverage, viral trends related to his music, or shifts in social media engagement could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, any news affecting the broader entertainment landscape or online video consumption habits could influence traders’ assessments of the potential view count for his content.
