TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 18, 2026
Closed: Sep 17, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on how many global daily views his content receives on YouTube. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on various levels of viewership achievement.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 15, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique numerical threshold ranging from 14 million to 17 million views. If the actual view count exceeds a market's specific threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding data source and disclaimer language, noting that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Justin Bieber's viewership. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions. This includes real-time sentiment, betting behavior, and a diverse set of participant knowledge. While analysts might offer a single point estimate, this market reflects a probability distribution of potential outcomes, representing the collective wisdom of traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market continuously adjusts to new information and trading activity. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding Justin Bieber's views.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of views Justin Bieber receives on September 15, 2026, will be assessed against the 15.5 million threshold. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized video platform, ensuring transparency and accuracy. The final price of the contracts will reflect whether the outcome exceeded or fell short of this benchmark.
Several factors could influence the price of this market over the next few years. Major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s career, such as new album releases or tour dates, could significantly impact his viewership. Changes in the popularity of the video platform where his content is hosted, or broader shifts in online video consumption trends, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like controversies or positive media coverage, could also shift sentiment and move the market. Any news related to Justin Bieber's public image or activity is likely to be a key driver.
