TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks Justin Bieber's performance on YouTube for a specific day, focusing on how many global daily views his content receives. The outcome depends on whether his view count surpasses various thresholds, offering different perspectives on his audience engagement level for that day.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 13, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million views. If the recorded view count exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets use the same data source—YouTube Charts—with users searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location. It is important to note that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no affiliation implied.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives and real-time adjustments based on new information, which can lead to different probabilities than those offered by individual analysts. While analysts may focus on specific factors, the market incorporates diverse viewpoints and adapts quickly to changing circumstances. It’s a dynamic comparison, as analysts’ forecasts are typically static, while the market continuously updates.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different view counts for the event. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism where the collective wisdom of the crowd determines the perceived likelihood of various outcomes for the Justin Bieber views on September 13, 2026.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final view count will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against credible sources. The resolution will determine which contract pays out, based on the actual number of views Justin Bieber’s content receives on the specified date. The market’s outcome will be determined by the official, publicly reported view count, providing a clear and objective resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s content release schedule, promotional activities, or collaborations could impact expected viewership. Changes in social media trends, platform algorithms, or broader entertainment industry news could also influence trading activity. Unexpected events affecting Bieber’s public image or the overall media landscape could also shift market sentiment. Major marketing campaigns or viral challenges related to his content are other potential catalysts that could drive price fluctuations in this market.
