TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 15M
- Kalshi
Above 15M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 14, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on whether his YouTube views exceed certain thresholds. It reflects audience engagement through view counts, providing insight into his digital reach on that day.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Justin Bieber achieves specific global daily YouTube view thresholds on September 12, 2026, across multiple markets with incrementally higher targets ranging from 14 million to 17 million views. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, selecting 'Global' location and viewed through a New York IP address to ensure consistency. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the corresponding threshold is surpassed; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Importantly, YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than individual analysts. If analysts predict a certain range of views, you can see whether traders on Kalshi assign a higher or lower probability to outcomes within that range. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market believes analysts are over- or underestimating the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome is realized.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for Justin Bieber’s content on September 12, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific number of views that determines the outcome will be based on the market’s defined conditions, and the platform will rely on publicly available data to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s upcoming content releases, collaborations, or promotional activities would likely impact trading activity. Shifts in his overall popularity, as measured by social media engagement or music chart performance, could also influence the market. Unexpected events, such as controversies or major media appearances, could also lead to price fluctuations as traders reassess the likely number of views on September 12, 2026.
