TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 13, 2026
Closed: Sep 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on whether his YouTube views exceed certain thresholds. It reflects audience engagement through view counts, providing insight into his popularity and content reach on that day.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Justin Bieber achieves specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube for September 11, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, and the outcome for each depends on whether the recorded views surpass that threshold. All markets use data accessed via YouTube Charts, selecting 'Global' as the location and using values displayed from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement from YouTube. The structure allows multiple thresholds to be assessed simultaneously, each resolving independently based on the same underlying data source.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially identifying probabilities that diverge from individual analyst predictions. While analysts may focus on specific factors like past performance or promotional activities, the market incorporates a broader range of information and subjective assessments from numerous participants. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of available data or the inclusion of unforeseen variables influencing the final view count.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential view counts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on new information and changing market sentiment, allowing traders to express their beliefs and profit from accurate predictions. The market depth indicates the level of confidence in various outcomes, providing a comprehensive view of expectations surrounding Justin Bieber’s viewership on the specified date.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of views Justin Bieber receives on September 11, 2026, will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from official sources, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual view count at the time of resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s promotional activities leading up to September 11, 2026, would be a major catalyst. Unexpected collaborations, music releases, or media appearances could all drive increased viewership. Furthermore, broader trends in social media engagement and platform algorithms could influence the number of views. Major news events or cultural shifts could also impact public attention and, consequently, the market’s predictions. Changes in the popularity of the platform hosting the views will also be a key factor.
