TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 15.5M
- Kalshi
Above 15.5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 12, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a famous musician achieves specific levels of global daily views on a video-sharing platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on the peak view count reached within that timeframe, with various thresholds determining different possible results.
Kalshi
The event determines if Justin Bieber attains specified global daily YouTube view count thresholds between September 7, 2026, and September 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view count threshold, ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million. For any given market to resolve as 'Yes,' Bieber must surpass its particular threshold at least once during the week. All markets utilize view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, accessing data through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. Importantly, neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or media predictions, as traders directly put capital behind their beliefs. If analysts are consistently over or underestimating the potential view counts for Justin Bieber, the odds on Kalshi will reflect that discrepancy. This difference can be particularly insightful when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in public interest that analysts might not fully account for.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the highest daily view count during the specified period. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The more a particular outcome is traded, the more likely it is perceived to be, and the higher its price will climb.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Justin Bieber across all major video platforms during the period of September 7, 2026, to September 13, 2026. The specific data source used to determine the view count will be publicly available at the time of resolution, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the winning outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements related to Justin Bieber, such as new music releases, tour dates, or high-profile public appearances, would likely impact his view counts. Unexpected viral moments or controversies involving Bieber could also cause a surge in viewership. Broader trends in social media engagement and video consumption habits could also play a role, as could the release of competing content from other popular artists. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.
