TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a popular musician achieves specific daily view count thresholds on a global platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on real-time performance metrics being met or exceeded at any point within the period.
Kalshi
Multiple outcome thresholds are defined, each requiring Justin Bieber to surpass a specific Global daily view count on YouTube during the period from September 28, 2026, to October 4, 2026. For any outcome to resolve as 'Yes,' the corresponding threshold must be met or exceeded at least once within the specified timeframe. All markets utilize data accessed through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location, with values displayed from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Justin Bieber's daily view counts. Unlike traditional polls or expert predictions, this market represents a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These traders weigh various factors – including Bieber's recent activity, promotional schedules, and overall media trends – to express their beliefs about the most likely outcome. While analysts may offer point estimates, this market provides a probability distribution, showing the range of possible outcomes and the associated confidence levels.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand, meaning that if more people believe a particular view count is likely, the price of that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily view count for Justin Bieber across all major video platforms (such as YouTube and Vimeo) between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026, will be determined. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from these platforms, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. The market will then settle based on which contract corresponds to the actual highest daily view count achieved during that period.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s new music releases, world tours, or collaborations would likely impact his viewership. Unexpected appearances in popular media, viral social media trends featuring Bieber, or even significant news events that draw attention to him could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, changes in the algorithms of major video platforms, impacting content visibility, could influence trader sentiment and therefore the prices within this market.
