TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
What will Justin Bieber’s highest daily view count be?
Above 14.75M
- Kalshi
Above 14.75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 29, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 12:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a popular musician achieves specific levels of global daily views on a video-sharing platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on the actual viewer numbers recorded through platform analytics during that period.
Kalshi
Multiple outcome thresholds are defined for this event, each corresponding to a different numerical target for global daily views achieved by Justin Bieber on YouTube within the specified timeframe of September 21, 2026, to September 27, 2026. For any outcome to resolve as 'Yes,' Justin Bieber must surpass the respective view-count threshold at least once during this period. All outcomes share identical secondary rules: view counts are determined using data displayed from a New York IP address when accessing YouTube Charts, with the term 'Global' selected as the location filter. The event explicitly states that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation between YouTube and the market operator. The resolution process relies solely on publicly accessible YouTube Chart data for verification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as detailed public predictions are limited. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, incorporating a wide range of information and perspectives. If analysts were to release forecasts, a comparison could reveal whether the market anticipates a different outcome or assigns different probabilities to various scenarios than those suggested by expert opinions. Discrepancies could arise from differing data sources, analytical methods, or simply varying interpretations of the available information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes at prices determined by supply and demand. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, offering a dynamic and up-to-date view of expectations. The current market prices are driven by traders’ beliefs about factors influencing Justin Bieber’s viewership during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Justin Bieber between September 21, 2026, and September 27, 2026, will be determined by publicly available data from major video platforms and social media channels. The resolution will be based on the verified peak viewership achieved during that seven-day period, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s activities during the specified week – such as new music releases, concert dates, or significant media appearances – would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected viral trends or controversies involving Bieber could also drive trading activity. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of the platforms where his content is viewed, or shifts in overall viewership patterns, could influence traders’ assessments and move the market. Major platform algorithm changes could also play a role.
