TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14.5M
- Kalshi
Above 14.5M - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 17, 9:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a popular musician achieves specific levels of global daily views on a video-sharing platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on the actual performance metrics recorded over the specified timeframe.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Justin Bieber attains a specified threshold of global daily views on YouTube at any point between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different numerical threshold, ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million views. The resolution uses view counts reported through YouTube Charts with the location set to “Global” and accessed via a New York IP address. All markets explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these products, and references to YouTube are purely descriptive. The consistent secondary rules across all markets reinforce the methodology for data retrieval and the absence of official endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, there aren’t widespread analyst forecasts specifically predicting Justin Bieber’s daily view counts for September 2026. However, if we were to compare this market to general predictions about celebrity social media engagement, we’d likely see differences. Analysts often rely on historical trends and current popularity, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess all available information, including potential viral moments or promotional campaigns. This dynamic can lead to odds that diverge from traditional expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices reflect the probability of each outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of that outcome happening. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of Bieber’s potential viewership.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest verified daily view count Justin Bieber receives across major video platforms during the specified period, September 14, 2026, to September 20, 2026. The specific view count that triggers the winning outcome will be determined by publicly available data from these platforms, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any major announcements regarding new music releases, world tours, or high-profile collaborations involving Justin Bieber would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected viral trends featuring Bieber, or significant media coverage related to his personal life, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, changes in the algorithms of major video platforms, or the emergence of a competing celebrity with a similar fanbase, could influence trader sentiment and move this market. A surge in social media engagement leading up to the specified dates would be a key signal to watch.
