TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 14.75M
- Kalshi
Above 14.75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:13h:08m
Will Justin Bieber have above 14.75M daily views at any point during October 26, 2026 - November 1, 2026?
$
Description
This event tracks whether a famous musician achieves specific levels of global daily views on a popular video platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on the actual viewer numbers recorded through an official source, reflecting real-world interest and engagement metrics.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple threshold-based outcomes regarding Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view counts from October 26 to November 1, 2026. Each market specifies a unique numerical threshold (ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million views). If Bieber's view count exceeds any given threshold at any point during the period, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency, and all reference YouTube Charts for verification. The markets are independent, meaning exceeding one threshold does not affect others. Neither the event nor the markets imply any endorsement by YouTube, and all references to YouTube are strictly descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
It's often interesting to see how prediction market probabilities align with those from more traditional sources, such as polls or expert analysts. Currently, there isn’t a widespread consensus among analysts regarding Justin Bieber’s potential peak daily views during the specified timeframe. However, this market allows participants to express their collective prediction, which can differ significantly from individual analyst opinions. The wisdom of the crowd often provides a unique perspective, potentially identifying factors that analysts may overlook when assessing the likelihood of different outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand pushing prices up and lower demand causing them to fall.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest daily view count Justin Bieber achieves across all major video platforms during the period of October 26, 2026, to November 1, 2026. The exact view count will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy, determining which outcome in this market will be considered the winner.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any significant news regarding Justin Bieber, such as a new album release, a major tour announcement, or a viral social media moment, could substantially impact his viewership. Unexpected collaborations or appearances could also drive increased attention. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of the platforms where his content is hosted, or shifts in overall online video consumption trends, might affect expectations and move this market. Monitoring these types of events will be key to understanding price fluctuations.
