TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a famous musician achieves specific levels of global daily viewership on a popular video platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on whether the artist's content attracts sufficient audience engagement within that timeframe.
Kalshi
The event determines if Justin Bieber attains various threshold levels of global daily YouTube views at any point between October 12 and October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold, ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million views. All markets utilize data accessed via YouTube Charts, with "Global" selected as the location and values displayed from a New York IP address. No market endorsement by YouTube is implied, and all references to YouTube are purely descriptive. The resolution hinges solely on whether Bieber's view count exceeds the specified threshold for any single day within the week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as predicting daily view counts for a celebrity is not a common practice for traditional analysts. However, the market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. If analysts were to provide forecasts, one could compare their predictions to the implied probabilities reflected in the prices on Kalshi. Discrepancies between analyst forecasts and the market prices could indicate areas of disagreement or differing information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own research, news, and expectations, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. As more trades occur, the prices converge to reflect the collective belief of the market regarding the highest daily view count for Justin Bieber during the specified period.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest verified daily view count across all official Justin Bieber channels (e.g., YouTube, Vevo, TikTok) between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. The specific data source used to determine the view counts will be publicly available at the time of resolution, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the winning outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s activities during that week – such as a new music release, a high-profile public appearance, or a viral social media moment – would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected negative publicity or controversies could also move the market. Furthermore, changes in the popularity of the platforms where Justin Bieber is most active (e.g., a surge in TikTok usage) could influence predictions about his view counts, and thus, trading activity in this market.
