TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 15.5M
- Kalshi
Above 15.5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Closed: Aug 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Justin Bieber achieves specific high levels of global daily views on YouTube within a one-week period. Each outcome represents a different view count threshold that, if surpassed, would trigger a resolution. The event uses publicly available YouTube chart data to determine the outcome.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple view count thresholds for Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube views during the specified week of August 10-16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold ranging from above 15.25 million to above 17 million views. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, at any point during the week, Bieber's daily view count exceeds the respective threshold for that market. All thresholds share identical verification methodology: daily view counts are sourced exclusively from YouTube Charts under the 'Global' location filter. No market is endorsed by YouTube, and references to YouTube charts serve only as descriptive data sources. The outcome for each market depends solely on whether the corresponding numerical threshold is met during the evaluation window, with all markets operating independently based on their specific view count requirements.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view of public engagement trends. Analysts may focus on promotional events or media coverage, while traders incorporate a broader range of signals, including social media buzz and streaming platform performance. This can lead to divergence, especially when unexpected viral moments occur in the days leading up to Aug 18, 2026.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning side will be determined by comparing official daily view counts from platforms like YouTube or other major streaming services for the August 10–16, 2026 period. No additional criteria or complex calculations are involved — the highest single-day total decides the result.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 18, 2026. Major promotional events, such as concert announcements or headline-making interviews featuring Justin Bieber, often drive short-term spikes in viewership expectations. Additionally, competitor activity — if another artist releases a highly anticipated video during the same week — could dampen Bieber’s prospects and move odds. Social media trends and platform algorithm changes also frequently influence trader sentiment.
