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July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
kalshi
polymarket

July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$12,293
Volume 24h:
$2,999
41%
Liquidity:
$21,195
206%
Open interest:
$2,010
0.2%

Time left: 16d:20h:09m

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?

47%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 52¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether global temperature in July 2026 will fall within specific ranges (in degrees Celsius above baseline), based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Seven mutually exclusive bracket markets collectively cover all possible outcomes from below 1.10°C to above 1.29°C.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical primary source (NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index) and resolve based on the July 2026 value when released, with consistent fallback logic to the lowest bracket if data is unavailable by the September 1, 2026 deadline.Primary resolution logic: NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISS) - GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius table, July 2026 row

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered immediately upon publication of the July 2026 value in NASA's official GISS temperature table, regardless of future revisions
  • The seven markets partition all possible outcomes into mutually exclusive brackets: <1.10, 1.10-1.14, 1.15-1.19, 1.20-1.24, 1.25-1.29, >1.29 degrees Celsius
  • Exactly one market in the group will resolve YES; all others resolve NO
  • If NASA's primary GISS table becomes permanently unavailable, alternative NASA temperature data may be used as fallback
  • If no July 2026 data is published by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve according to the lowest bracket (<1.10°C)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Revision After Resolution: Markets resolve immediately upon initial publication of the July 2026 figure. Subsequent revisions to historical data do not trigger re-resolution.
  • NASA Source Unavailability: If the primary GISS table becomes permanently unavailable, resolution may use alternative NASA temperature indices (e.g., GISS Surface Temperature Analysis). The specific alternative would be determined at resolution time.
  • Missing Data Deadline: If NASA has not published July 2026 data by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to the lowest bracket outcome (temperature increase <1.10°C).
  • Boundary Values: Temperature values are measured in 0.01 degree Celsius increments per NASA's table. A value of exactly 1.15°C resolves the 1.15-1.19 bracket market to YES; a value of exactly 1.10°C resolves the 1.10-1.14 bracket to YES.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon NASA's publication of the July 2026 Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index value. If data is not available by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to the lowest bracket by default.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the Land Ocean-Temperature Index value published for July 2026. All possible temperature outcomes result in a Yes resolution: values at or below 1.02999°C, between 1.03-1.09°C, between 1.10-1.16°C, between 1.17-1.23°C, between 1.24-1.30°C, or above 1.30001°C. Since every conceivable LOTI reading falls within one of these ranges, the market will resolve to Yes regardless of the actual temperature anomaly recorded for that month.

Frequently asked questions

The July 2026 temperature increase market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus on how much global temperature will rise during July 2026 measured in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, traders currently price the likelihood of specific temperature bands, with the leading outcome at 47.0%. This market reflects real-time belief about near-term climate conditions and serves as a barometer for how prediction market participants assess seasonal temperature anomalies relative to historical baselines.

Prediction markets like this one aggregate dispersed information from thousands of traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately, often revealing consensus that differs from traditional analyst models. While climate scientists and meteorological agencies publish seasonal outlooks based on atmospheric physics and historical patterns, traders incorporate those forecasts alongside real-time data, market sentiment, and emerging climate signals. The gap between market odds and published analyst ranges can highlight uncertainty or disagreement about July 2026 conditions, making this market a useful cross-check against institutional predictions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price divergence even when tracking the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi may also differ in how they frame temperature bands or accept user deposits, influencing which traders participate on each venue. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but slow order-book updates or regional trading patterns can sustain small spreads between platforms for hours or days.

This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, once July 2026 concludes and temperature data becomes available. The outcome is determined by verified measurements of global temperature increase for that month, confirmed against credible public sources. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature band will receive payouts proportional to their position size, while incorrect predictions result in losses. Resolution typically occurs within days of month-end once official data is published and validated.

Major climate drivers include El Niño or La Niña patterns, volcanic activity affecting atmospheric aerosols, solar variability, and Arctic sea-ice extent. Real-time weather anomalies, updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, and peer-reviewed climate reports can shift trader expectations. Additionally, geopolitical events affecting emissions or atmospheric composition, along with unexpected data releases on ocean temperatures or atmospheric CO2 levels, may prompt repricing. As July 2026 approaches, actual weather observations will increasingly anchor prices toward the true outcome.

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