TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
$
Two professional tennis players compete in the Round of 16 at the 2026 French Open, with the outcome depending on who wins the second set of their match.
On Kalshi, the Set 2 winner contract is priced between 0 and 100 cents, with each cent representing a 1% probability increment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market reflects 100.0% probability for the top outcome, meaning traders are pricing that scenario at that level. Prices move continuously as new information arrives—player fitness updates, court conditions, or momentum shifts during the match itself. Kalshi's binary structure makes pricing transparent and intuitive for traders seeking direct exposure to whether Cerundolo or Berrettini captures Set 2.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after the Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini match concludes and the Set 2 result is officially confirmed. Resolution depends on the official ATP or tournament record for which player won the second set. Once the set is completed and the outcome is documented by the governing body, the market settles to reflect the actual winner. Traders should monitor the match schedule and any potential postponements or cancellations that could affect the resolution timeline.
Several catalysts could shift odds before Jun 1, 2026. Injury announcements or withdrawal news for either player would dramatically reprrice the market. Recent form updates, head-to-head records, or surface-specific performance data released closer to match day influence trader conviction. Court conditions, weather forecasts, and draw announcements also matter. During the match itself, Set 1 outcome and momentum swings will drive real-time repricing of Set 2 odds. Player fatigue, tactical adjustments, and serve performance in the opening set all provide signals that traders incorporate into their Set 2 probability estimates.