TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$85,014,378

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,695,592

394,774

Markets across

30,069

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,615

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Josue De Paula: Debut Date
kalshi

Josue De Paula: Debut Date

Volume:
$28,208

Before May 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before May 1, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 11:02 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,209
N/A
N/A
$7,254
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2027

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,873
N/A
N/A
$6,838
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,672
N/A
N/A
$2,098
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2027

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,347
N/A
N/A
$1,951
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before May 1, 2028

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,135
N/A
N/A
$1,753
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2028

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,184
N/A
N/A
$1,111
2y 1mo
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2028

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$787
N/A
N/A
$763
2y 1mo
Yes
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Josue De Paula will appear in an MLB game for any team before November 1, 2028. Currently, the probability stands at 69.0% that De Paula plays in a regular season or playoff game during this window. The market resolves based on official MLB records and game appearances. Watch for announcements regarding De Paula's roster status and spring training performance leading up to the 2028 season, as these will be key indicators of his path to a major league debut.

Kalshi

The Josue De Paula debut event establishes a series of progressive time-based milestones tracking the prospect's entry into Major League Baseball competition. Resolution occurs if De Paula plays in any regular season or playoff game for any MLB team before each specified deadline. The event spans from November 1, 2026 through November 1, 2028, with intermediate checkpoints at May 1 and August 1 of each year. Once De Paula appears in an MLB game before any given deadline, all markets for that deadline and all subsequent later deadlines resolve to Yes. Markets resolve to No only if De Paula has not played in an MLB game by the specified date, or if circumstances make his MLB debut impossible.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often reflect different incentive structures than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks focus on balancing liability and extracting margin, prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. The Kalshi market for Josue De Paula's debut date may show wider or narrower spreads depending on trader conviction and participation. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to consensus analyst forecasts or prospect development timelines can help contextualize whether the market is pricing in optimistic or conservative debut scenarios.

The Josue De Paula: Debut Date market on Kalshi resolves on Nov 1, 2028. Resolution is determined by whether the specified debut condition is met before the deadline. Traders should monitor official MLB records and team rosters as the resolution date approaches. The outcome hinges on De Paula's progression through the minor-league system, organizational decisions, and any roster transactions that place him in a major-league game.

Several catalysts could shift odds on the Kalshi market. Significant improvements or declines in De Paula's minor-league statistics, promotions to higher-level affiliates, or injuries would trigger repricing. Organizational roster moves, trades, or changes in team depth at his position could accelerate or delay his path to the majors. Spring training performance, front-office commentary about his readiness, and competing prospect developments within his organization will all influence trader sentiment and market probability through the resolution window.