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400,720

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Jordan vs. Iran
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Jordan vs Iran?

Volume:
$110,760

Iran

 - Kalshi

Iran - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 2:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Iran

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73,062
N/A
N/A
$34,559
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jordan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,336
N/A
N/A
$13,226
Settled
No
polymarket

Jordan vs. Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Jordan and Iran scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi both aim to resolve based on the final outcome of this single professional basketball match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory: both Jordan victory and Iran victory are specified to resolve to Yes, which violates the law of excluded middle for a binary sports outcome. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero tip: This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's platform. The second resolution condition must be corrected before trading. Request clarification: does Iran victory resolve to No, or is there an undisclosed third outcome (tie/draw)? Polymarket's binary structure is logically sound and should be treated as the reference standard.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Clean binary resolution: Jordan win resolves to Jordan, Iran win resolves to Iran. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50. Final score including overtime determines outcome.
  • Kalshi: Contradictory resolution: states both Jordan victory and Iran victory resolve to Yes. Missing explicit No condition or tie/draw specification. Quote: 'If Jordan wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Iran wins...resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for July 2 at 12:30PM ET: If the Jordan win, the market will resolve to "Jordan". If the Iran win, the market will resolve to "Iran". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the winner of the Iran vs Jordan professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two weeks. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes through fundamentally different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance liability and extract a fixed margin, while prediction markets rely on peer-to-peer trading where participants directly set odds based on their conviction. This market-driven approach often reflects sharper, more dynamic pricing because traders face real financial incentive to identify mispricings. Prediction market odds tend to adjust faster to breaking news and shift more transparently than sportsbook lines, making them valuable for comparing against your own view or tracking how consensus evolves leading up to kickoff.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, user bases, and liquidity pools, so identical events can trade at different prices simultaneously. Polymarket may attract traders with different risk appetites or information sets than Kalshi, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. Platform-specific rules, fee structures, and settlement mechanics also influence how traders price risk. Additionally, one venue may see larger volume spikes from institutional or retail activity, moving the midpoint faster than the other. These gaps typically narrow as sophisticated traders exploit them, but real-time divergence is normal and reflects the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

Key injury announcements, team roster changes, or coaching decisions can trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess squad strength. Recent form, head-to-head records, and qualifying performance leading into the match will influence confidence in either side. Weather conditions at the venue, home-field advantage dynamics, and any off-field controversies may also shift sentiment. Major betting syndicates or institutional traders entering the market can move odds significantly. Real-time match events—early goals, red cards, or momentum swings—will drive intraday volatility. Monitoring team news, official statements, and prediction market volume spikes helps you stay ahead of price moves and identify trading opportunities.