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John Deere Classic End of Round 1 Leader
kalshi

Who will lead after Round 1 of the John Deere Classic?

Volume:
$9,769,198

Lucas Glover

 - Kalshi

Lucas Glover - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 9:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Lucas Glover

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$576,601
N/A
N/A
$333,197
Settled
No
kalshi

Zac Blair

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
100¢
N/A
$230,426
N/A
N/A
$112,898
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$632,648
N/A
N/A
$543,344
Settled
No
kalshi

Jackson Suber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$421,150
N/A
N/A
$360,867
Settled
No
kalshi

Mac Meissner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$403,549
N/A
N/A
$353,491
Settled
No
kalshi

Hao-Tong Li

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$311,928
N/A
N/A
$309,001
Settled
No
kalshi

Eric Cole

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$301,141
N/A
N/A
$299,246
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Thorbjornsen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$269,431
N/A
N/A
$237,982
Settled
No
kalshi

Tom Kim

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$225,342
N/A
N/A
$223,278
Settled
No
kalshi

Emiliano Grillo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$204,694
N/A
N/A
$204,019
Settled
No
kalshi

Kevin Yu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$190,249
N/A
N/A
$187,440
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Griffin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$184,575
N/A
N/A
$182,942
Settled
No
kalshi

Stephan Jaeger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$172,303
N/A
N/A
$121,730
Settled
No
kalshi

Blades Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$164,412
N/A
N/A
$158,282
Settled
No
kalshi

Aldrich Potgieter

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$162,667
N/A
N/A
$162,355
Settled
No
kalshi

Denny McCarthy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$158,320
N/A
N/A
$156,835
Settled
No
kalshi

Jordan Spieth

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150,818
N/A
N/A
$148,146
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Kohles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$142,108
N/A
N/A
$127,229
Settled
No
kalshi

Garrick Higgo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$135,291
N/A
N/A
$129,754
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Berger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132,181
N/A
N/A
$131,136
Settled
No
kalshi

Jackson Koivun

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115,615
N/A
N/A
$114,477
Settled
No
kalshi

Max McGreevy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108,300
N/A
N/A
$102,680
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Brennan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106,182
N/A
N/A
$95,766
Settled
No
kalshi

Nicolas Echavarria

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$106,047
N/A
N/A
$105,813
Settled
No
kalshi

Keith Mitchell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104,920
N/A
N/A
$95,629
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 148

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will have the lowest score after the first round of the 2026 John Deere Classic. On Kalshi, Zac Blair leads at 50.0%, with Lucas Glover at 49.0%. The market resolves based on official PGA Tour scoring. Watch for the completion of Round 1 on July 19, 2026, when final first-round scores will determine the leader.

Kalshi

The 2026 John Deere Classic Round 1 leader market resolves based on which golfer has the lowest score after the completion of Round 1. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific golfer. If a golfer achieves the best score outright, their market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. If multiple golfers tie for the lead, all tied golfers' markets resolve to Yes with adjusted payouts: Yes positions pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N equals the number of tied participants, and No positions pay 1 minus the Yes payout. This ensures fair distribution of winnings among all tied leaders while accounting for the reduced probability of any single player being the sole leader.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the John Deere Classic Round 1 leader market displays real-time odds on which golfer will hold the lead after the tournament's opening round. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their conviction about the frontrunner, with prices updating continuously as new information and tournament action emerge. The interface shows current market probability, historical price movement, and trading activity, giving you a live snapshot of how the prediction community is positioning ahead of and during Round 1 play.

Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue processes new information faster. Comparing the two can reveal where smart money is positioning and highlight potential value, though neither is inherently more accurate than the other.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks on binary or multi-outcome contracts. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal probability that traders assign to it; higher prices indicate greater confidence in that golfer finishing Round 1 in the lead. As new rounds of play unfold and player performance becomes clearer, prices adjust dynamically to incorporate that fresh data.

This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, once Round 1 of the John Deere Classic concludes and the leaderboard is finalized. The outcome is determined by identifying which golfer holds the lowest score after all 18 holes of the opening round are complete. Resolution is verified against credible public sources covering professional golf, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Round 1 concludes. Early scoring updates from the course—particularly hot starts or collapses by top contenders—will trigger immediate repricing. Weather conditions, course setup changes, and injury reports on key players can also influence trader sentiment. Real-time leaderboard movements throughout the day will be the primary catalyst, as traders react to live scoring and adjust their positions based on who is climbing or falling relative to the lead.