TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Filip Peliwo in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Filip Peliwo. This market will resolve to 'Filip Peliwo' if Filip Peliwo advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Filip Peliwo in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Filip Peliwo. This market will resolve to 'Filip Peliwo' if Filip Peliwo advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may be influenced by public betting patterns or other factors, while this market reflects a more nuanced assessment of the players’ chances.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the Bellucci vs Peliwo match.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Jingshan qualifying match between Mattia Bellucci and Filip Peliwo. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about the players’ strategies or physical condition would also be impactful. Furthermore, major upsets in other matches within the qualifying tournament could alter perceptions of the overall competitive landscape, affecting confidence in each player’s chances. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 5, 2026.