TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 12:15 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marat Sharipov and Naoya Honda in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Naoya Honda. This market will resolve to 'Naoya Honda' if Naoya Honda advances against Marat Sharipov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marat Sharipov and Naoya Honda in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marat Sharipov' if Marat Sharipov advances against Naoya Honda. This market will resolve to 'Naoya Honda' if Naoya Honda advances against Marat Sharipov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the wisdom of the crowd on Polymarket, aims to represent true probabilities, though biases can still emerge. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market evolves as more information becomes available and more traders participate. It's common to see differences, especially as the event approaches and new data influences predictions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a specific outcome. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, with the platform ensuring that the total value of all shares sums to 1. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Jingshan fight between Marat Sharipov and Naoya Honda, as determined by the event organizers. The platform will verify the result against established sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the market. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final share price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the fighters' training, health, or potential injuries would likely cause significant shifts in probabilities. Official weigh-in results and pre-fight press conferences could also impact sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the fight's rules or location might also play a role. Furthermore, general shifts in public opinion or analysis from MMA experts could drive trading volume and alter the implied probabilities within this market on Polymarket.