TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:12 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Keisuke Saitoh and Koki Matsuda in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keisuke Saitoh' if Keisuke Saitoh advances against Koki Matsuda. This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Keisuke Saitoh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Keisuke Saitoh and Koki Matsuda in the Jingshan, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keisuke Saitoh' if Keisuke Saitoh advances against Koki Matsuda. This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Keisuke Saitoh. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to represent the true probability of an outcome, though discrepancies can still arise due to differing information or risk assessments. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information and potentially offer more favorable odds than sportsbooks, depending on the event and available data.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe in an outcome, the higher the share price will rise, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that constantly adjusts based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Jingshan fight between Keisuke Saitoh and Koki Matsuda. The platform will rely on established fight records and reporting from reputable sports news sources to determine the winner and finalize the market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several signals could influence this market leading up to the fight. Any news regarding injuries to either Keisuke Saitoh or Koki Matsuda would likely cause significant movement. Updates on their training regimens, weight class status, or pre-fight press conferences could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and changes in betting odds from sportsbooks may influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements or controversies surrounding the fight could also lead to shifts in the market’s pricing.