TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 8:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the specific round in which either Jean Silva or Jose Delgado secures a decisive victory in their scheduled UFC Fight Night bout. Outcomes include knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification, or a decision/draw/no contest across all scheduled rounds.
The event determines whether Jean Silva or Jose Delgado wins the fight via knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification (DQ) in a specified round, or if the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest. Each market corresponds to a specific round (Rounds 1 through 5) for each fighter, with an additional market for decision/draw/no contest outcomes. A technical decision is explicitly treated as a decision for settlement purposes and does not count as a win in any round. If a fighter achieves a qualifying victory in their designated round, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The fight must occur as originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, and any changes to the bout (e.g., rescheduling, fighter substitution) may affect market resolution unless explicitly accounted for in secondary rules. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. As a result, the odds here can sometimes diverge from traditional sportsbooks, especially when there's strong public sentiment or inside information not yet reflected in betting lines. It's common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to new developments, offering a potentially more efficient assessment of probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing each possible outcome of the Silva vs. Delgado fight. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. This mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market, constantly adjusting to new information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the fight, determining which fighter achieved victory. The platform will rely on widely accepted sources to verify the result and settle the contracts accordingly. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the resulting payouts once the resolution process is complete. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected betting line movements at sportsbooks might also influence trading activity. Furthermore, analysis from boxing experts and any updates on the fighters’ physical or mental preparation could all contribute to price fluctuations. As the fight draws closer, even minor developments are likely to be closely scrutinized by traders, potentially leading to substantial changes in the odds.