TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 10:28 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the probability of Japan vs. Venezuela: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 occurring in a FIFA International Friendly match between Japan and Venezuela, encompassing various outcomes like spreads and goals. Currently, the consensus probability across Predict and Polymarket is 100.0%. Resolution will be based on the official final score published on fifa.com. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for September 28, 2026, as the outcome of the game will determine market resolution.
More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for September 28 at 6:25 AM ET.
More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for September 28 at 6:25 AM ET.
Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their belief about the probability of an outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. The volume of $526,720 suggests significant interest in this event, potentially indicating a strong signal compared to standard betting markets.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The differing prices on Polymarket and Predict for the Japan vs. Venezuela match stem from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Polymarket’s focus on Over/Under markets might attract a different type of trader than Predict’s emphasis on spread betting. Additionally, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform can influence price discovery. These dynamics, combined with independent analysis by traders on each platform, can lead to divergent probabilities even for the same underlying event.