TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Japan vs. Uruguay
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Japan vs Uruguay?

Volume:
$1,296,709

Japan

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 10:07 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Japan

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$366,113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Japan

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$304,295
N/A
N/A
$153,925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Uruguay

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$322,255
N/A
N/A
$214,320
Settled
No
polymarket

Uruguay

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104,313
N/A
N/A
$62,220
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Japan vs. Uruguay)

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68,635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Japan will win its soccer match against Uruguay on September 24, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Japan winning is 100.0%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The official match result, as reported by https://www.fifa.com within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, will determine resolution. Keep an eye on any announcements regarding potential game cancellations, as differing platform rules—specifically between Kalshi and Polymarket—could impact settlement if the match is not played.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly handles game cancellation by resolving to 'No', while Kalshi does not address this scenario.Hero tip: Consider the risk of game cancellation when trading on Kalshi, as the market's resolution may be uncertain in that event. Polymarket provides clarity on this point.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolution is based on official statistics, with fallback sources (Flashscore, Sofascore, consensus reporting). If canceled, resolves to 'No'.
  • Kalshi: Resolution is based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit handling of game cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 between Japan and Uruguay.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the result of the Japan vs Uruguay professional international friendly soccer match originally scheduled for September 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Japan, Uruguay, or Tie markets occurs if the respective team wins or the match ends level within regular time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following Kalshi’s standard procedures. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On PredictionHero, this dashboard aggregates forecasts for the Japan vs. Uruguay match from multiple prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays a consensus view of the likely outcome, combining volume and probabilities across these platforms. Currently, the aggregated volume for this market is $1,296,709, with $1,228,130 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard allows you to compare how different platforms are pricing the same event, providing a more comprehensive understanding of expectations than any single market alone. This allows traders to see where the 'wisdom of the crowd' currently stands on the match’s outcome.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to profit by setting lines that attract balanced betting, while prediction market participants are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a more accurate 'true' probability, especially as more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks often have higher liquidity and may offer more competitive pricing, particularly before significant market activity in prediction markets. This market provides an alternative perspective on the likely result of the Japan vs. Uruguay match.