TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 10:00 AM EST
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Japan wins by 2 or more goals against Iceland during regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time only) in the Friendlies match scheduled for May 31, 2026, 10:25 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." If the match is canceled after it starts, this market will resolve based on official data recorded up to that point. If the match is canceled entirely before it starts or postponed/rescheduled to a restart date later than July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO."
On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Limitless, this outcome is priced according to the volume and direction of trader activity. The platform displays an implied probability reflecting how many participants believe Japan will win by 2 or more goals versus those betting on alternative outcomes. Prices adjust in real time as new trades execute, with larger positions moving the odds more significantly. Traders can enter or exit positions up until market close on Jun 1, 2026, allowing continuous repricing based on incoming match information, team news, and shifting market conviction about Japan's likelihood of a decisive victory.
This market resolves on Jun 1, 2026 following the conclusion of the Japan vs Iceland match. Resolution is determined by the final score: if Japan wins by exactly 2 goals or more, the outcome resolves affirmatively; any other result (Japan wins by 1, a draw, or an Iceland victory) resolves negatively. Official match records from the governing sports authority establish the final scoreline. Traders should monitor team lineups, injury reports, and venue conditions leading up to kickoff, as these factors directly influence the probability of Japan achieving the required margin of victory.
Key catalysts include confirmed team lineups and injury status of star players on both sides, particularly Japan's attacking threats and Iceland's defensive depth. Recent form, head-to-head history, and tactical adjustments announced by coaches can shift market expectations significantly. Weather conditions at the venue may favor one team's playing style. Pre-match analysis from respected analysts and unexpected news such as late withdrawals or lineup surprises will likely trigger sharp repricing. As kickoff approaches, live betting sentiment and early match momentum will also influence trader conviction about Japan's ability to secure a 2-goal or greater winning margin.