TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.9b

24H VOL:

$119,575,967

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,087,693

185,125

Markets across

18,843

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,297

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

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January Inflation US - Annual
Economics
polymarket
kalshi

January Inflation US - Annual

Volume:
$1,860,062
PredictionHero
Above 2.3% 100%
kalshi
Above 2.2% 100%
kalshi
Above 2.1% 100%
kalshi
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Jul 2…859095100

Closed: Feb 11, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for the period ending January 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are structured around whether annual inflation will fall within or exceed specific percentage thresholds, all resolving to one decimal place precision based on the official BLS CPI release scheduled for February 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution source (BLS CPI monthly report), identical measurement period (12 months ending January 2026), identical precision (one decimal place), and identical fallback logic (prior month data if scheduled release fails).Primary resolution logic: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index monthly news release for January 2026, published at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm, scheduled release February 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution value is the 12-month CPI inflation rate ending January 2026, reported to one decimal place by BLS
  • Polymarket binary markets resolve YES if inflation is within specified range (e.g., <=2.8%, >=3.2%, or exactly 2.9/3.0/3.1%)
  • Kalshi binary markets resolve YES if inflation exceeds specified threshold (e.g., >2.4%, >2.9%, >3.1%)
  • If BLS does not release on scheduled date, market remains open until next scheduled CPI report release
  • If data unavailable by next report date, resolution uses most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed BLS Release: If February 11, 2026 release is postponed, markets remain open through the next scheduled CPI report date per BLS calendar. Both platforms apply identical holdover logic.
  • Data Revision or Correction: Resolution uses the figure as initially published in the official BLS news release on the scheduled release date. Subsequent revisions do not trigger market re-settlement.
  • Rounding and Precision: All thresholds and outcomes are evaluated using the one-decimal place figure reported by BLS (e.g., 2.9%, not 2.85% or 2.94%). No rounding by platforms occurs.
  • Threshold Interpretation (Polymarket vs Kalshi): Polymarket uses inclusive ranges (<=, >=, exactly equal); Kalshi uses strict greater-than (>) thresholds. Both resolve to YES or NO based on their respective logical operators applied to the same BLS figure.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS Consumer Price Index report for January 2026, scheduled for February 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. If delayed, resolution occurs at the next scheduled BLS CPI report release date, or uses prior month data if no release occurs by that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.22.3PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.