January Inflation US - Annual

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Core resolution logic:

• Resolution value is the 12-month CPI inflation rate ending January 2026, reported to one decimal place by BLS
• Polymarket binary markets resolve YES if inflation is within specified range (e.g., <=2.8%, >=3.2%, or exactly 2.9/3.0/3.1%)
• Kalshi binary markets resolve YES if inflation exceeds specified threshold (e.g., >2.4%, >2.9%, >3.1%)
• If BLS does not release on scheduled date, market remains open until next scheduled CPI report release
• If data unavailable by next report date, resolution uses most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & Clarifications:

• Delayed BLS Release: If February 11, 2026 release is postponed, markets remain open through the next scheduled CPI report date per BLS calendar. Both platforms apply identical holdover logic.
• Data Revision or Correction: Resolution uses the figure as initially published in the official BLS news release on the scheduled release date. Subsequent revisions do not trigger market re-settlement.
• Rounding and Precision: All thresholds and outcomes are evaluated using the one-decimal place figure reported by BLS (e.g., 2.9%, not 2.85% or 2.94%). No rounding by platforms occurs.
• Threshold Interpretation (Polymarket vs Kalshi): Polymarket uses inclusive ranges (<=, >=, exactly equal); Kalshi uses strict greater-than (>) thresholds. Both resolve to YES or NO based on their respective logical operators applied to the same BLS figure.