TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 9:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Jamaica and Guatemala, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds define whether the market settles in favor of one team or the other based on the goal differential.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in the Jamaica vs. Guatemala professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 25, 2026. Resolution occurs solely based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Jamaica winning by more than 2.5 goals, Jamaica winning by more than 1.5 goals, Guatemala winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Guatemala winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold corresponds to a separate market resolution condition, meaning the event will resolve to 'Yes' for the specific market where the actual result meets or exceeds its defined goal-differential requirement. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders. If a large number of people believe Jamaica will cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of team strengths, offering opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the potential result. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of everyone trading in this market.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Jamaica vs Guatemala match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official final score and spread as determined by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams, or significant shifts in public opinion based on analyst predictions, could also drive price movement. Major news events or announcements related to the teams or the competition could also cause the market to react.