TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional football game between Jacksonville and Denver, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It covers various possible score differences to determine the result, reflecting how decisively one team may win over the other.
The event determines its outcome based on the point differential between Jacksonville and Denver in their full game, including any overtime periods, scheduled for September 20, 2026. If Denver wins by exactly 0 points (a tie), or by between 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the event resolves positively for Denver in those respective categories. Conversely, if Jacksonville wins by between 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the event resolves positively for Jacksonville in those respective categories. Each category has a specific point range that must be met for resolution, ensuring precise determination of the winning margin. The secondary rules clarify that the platform is not officially affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event approaches, the prices in this market may converge with or diverge from sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event date, as they incorporate a wider range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different winning margins for the Jacksonville vs Denver game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific margin occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The more traders who believe a certain margin is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic process creates a real-time forecast of the game’s result.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final winning margin of the Jacksonville vs Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the league, taking into account any potential overtime periods. The winning margin will be calculated as the final score of the winning team minus the final score of the losing team. Any disputes regarding the official result will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of contracts in this market. Key player injuries on either the Jacksonville or Denver teams would likely cause substantial shifts, as would any changes in coaching strategies or team performance. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the outcome and therefore the market prices. Major news reports about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role, as could significant betting activity from informed traders. Any developments that alter perceptions of each team’s chances of winning will likely move this market.