TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will have multiple turnovers during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the in-game actions of the quarterbacks.
The event evaluates whether designated quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence, record specified numbers of passing interceptions in the Jacksonville vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Markets are structured around thresholds of 1+, 2+, and 3+ interceptions for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of interceptions recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria tied to the specific interception threshold for the named quarterback. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, it might suggest that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, perhaps factoring in nuanced details or anticipating unexpected events. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final number of passing interceptions. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market can react quickly to news and information, potentially offering insights beyond static odds provided elsewhere. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Jacksonville vs Denver game will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team – injuries, changes in playing status – would likely have a significant impact. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be adverse for passing, could also shift the market. Late-breaking reports about defensive strategies or key player matchups could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, reflected in betting patterns, could move this market as traders adjust their predictions.