TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds. These thresholds represent different levels of performance, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of success for each quarterback.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions achieved by the named quarterback during the Jacksonville vs Denver Professional Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. For any market, if the specified quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined immediately before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether those plays are later nullified by penalty—the market settles strictly according to the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. This applies uniformly across all markets, which are differentiated only by the specific completion thresholds (e.g., 17+, 22+, etc.) set for each quarterback (Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence). The governing league’s official statistics will determine completion counts, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, driven by individual traders on Kalshi, can react more quickly to new information, such as injury reports or weather forecasts, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those found at sportsbooks. However, as the event approaches, these odds often converge as more information becomes available and public sentiment aligns.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly adjusting based on the collective intelligence of the market participants, offering a unique perspective compared to static odds offered elsewhere.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing completion statistics from the Jacksonville vs Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both teams combined will be used to determine the winning contracts. It’s important to note that any official adjustments or corrections to the game statistics released by the NFL will be reflected in the final resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team, such as injuries or changes in playing status, would likely cause substantial movement. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence passing strategies and, consequently, the market. Unexpected changes in coaching tactics or key player matchups could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any significant public information released about team practice dynamics or offensive game plans could also move this market.