TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 6:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which Denver player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Jacksonville. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the possibility of no touchdown being scored by Denver, allowing participants to bet on their prediction for the game's initial scoring play.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Denver player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes a snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined by whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Denver touchdowns are scored in the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player-specific markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player and unit markets for the event.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when public perception differs from expert analysis. Comparing the implied probabilities from both sources can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though it’s important to remember they represent different approaches to forecasting the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of Denver scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. As more people buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the likelihood of the outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine whether Denver scored the first touchdown in the game against Jacksonville. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data, ensuring an objective and accurate assessment of the event. The outcome will be determined by the official game results, as reported by trusted sports news sources and official league data.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jacksonville or Denver offense, particularly the quarterback or primary receiving targets, would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest conditions unfavorable for passing, could also shift the odds. Game-day reports about player matchups or coaching strategies, as well as any significant pre-game analysis from sports analysts, could also impact trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.