TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
8-9m
- Polymarket
8-9m - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one aggregate real-money trader bets, which often diverge from traditional analyst estimates. While box office analysts may rely on historical comps, marketing spend, and franchise momentum, traders here incorporate those signals plus their own conviction and risk appetite. The current odds on this market reflect what thousands of participants believe will happen, not what a single analyst predicts. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or superior to expert forecasts on entertainment outcomes, since traders face direct financial consequences for inaccuracy.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares representing "Yes" (opening weekend over $11 million) and "No" (opening weekend $11 million or below) trade continuously. The price of each share reflects the implied probability; a share trading at $0.30 implies a 30% chance of that outcome. Liquidity pools and order books determine spreads and slippage. As traders deposit capital and place bets, prices adjust to balance supply and demand, ensuring the market remains responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the opening weekend box office result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed against widely cited industry sources that track domestic box office performance. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on whether the film's opening weekend domestic gross crosses the $11 million threshold, with the final figure drawn from authoritative box office tracking.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Marketing campaigns, trailer releases, and celebrity appearances drive awareness and sentiment. Early social media buzz and fan reactions shape trader expectations. Competing releases and broader box office trends influence the competitive landscape. Industry commentary and box office forecasts from trade publications often trigger repricing. Finally, real-time opening weekend numbers—Friday matinee reports, Saturday updates, and Sunday final tallies—will cause sharp moves as traders react to actual performance data. Each of these signals feeds into live price discovery on the market.
