TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the JAC Jaguars or DEN Broncos specifically within the final quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team in that quarter for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential achieved by either the JAC Jaguars or DEN Broncos exclusively during the 4th quarter of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. Each market specifies a unique threshold—ranging from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to substantial leads such as over 10.5 points—that the winning team must surpass for the market to resolve as 'Yes.' The outcome hinges solely on performance within the final quarter, meaning earlier quarters' results have no bearing on these determinations. All markets share the consistent secondary rule that only points scored during regulation time of the 4th quarter count, ensuring clarity and focus on the specified timeframe.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate differing expectations about the game's outcome or potential biases in either the market or the sportsbook's assessment. It’s important to consider both when forming your own opinion.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Jaguars-Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The final result will be publicly available after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jaguars or the Broncos would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching decisions or team strategies could shift expectations and affect the market price. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, may also play a role.