TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 6:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the Denver Broncos or Jacksonville Jaguars specifically within the third quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars during the third quarter of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that the winning team must exceed for the contract to resolve as 'Yes'. For markets where the Broncos win by more than a specified margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, 2.5, or 1.5 points), the contract resolves to 'Yes' if the Broncos outscore the Jaguars by that amount or more in the third quarter. Conversely, for markets where the Jaguars win by more than a specified margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the contract resolves to 'Yes' if the Jaguars outscore the Broncos by that amount or more in the third quarter. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to 'No'.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments of the game’s outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and public sentiment shifts. Comparing these odds can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a particular spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants. The current volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding various potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the third quarter of the Jaguars-Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The final spread will be compared against the contract spreads offered on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jaguars or the Broncos would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected scoring and therefore the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also play a role. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, can contribute to shifts in the price on Kalshi.