TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on predicting the outcome of a football game between two teams, specifically analyzing how much one team might outscore the other in the latter part of the match. The resolution depends entirely on the point differential after the halfway point of play.
The event resolves based on the point differential between the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half (including overtime) of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Markets are structured around varying point spreads, with outcomes determined solely by scores achieved after the first half concludes. If the Broncos win the second half by more than a specified margin—from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered for Broncos-related markets. Conversely, if the Jaguars secure a second-half victory exceeding margins from 2.5 to 10.5 points, the respective 'Yes' outcome applies to Jaguars-related markets. All assessments exclude first-half performance, focusing exclusively on the second stanza's results, with overtime included in the calculation. The governing body's official records will serve as the definitive source for verifying final scores and timing of scoring events.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that traders possess information not yet fully incorporated by sportsbooks, or simply a different assessment of probabilities. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the Jaguars-Broncos 2nd half spread.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the second half spread in the Jaguars-Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contract. The platform will verify the outcome against publicly available data to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jaguars or the Broncos would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the market. In-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant offensive or defensive showing, could also lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market.