TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the first half of a football game between the JAC Jaguars and the DEN Broncos. They assess whether one team will win the first half by a specific margin of points. Only points scored in the first half are considered for resolution.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the designated football game between the JAC Jaguars and the DEN Broncos. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory. If the specified team wins the first half by more points than the threshold stated in the market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All outcomes exclusively consider points scored during the first half of play, with no regard to the final game result or points scored in the second half. The markets cover a range of margins from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points for both teams, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance in the opening half.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the game’s outcome. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, though discrepancies can occur due to differing information or risk appetites. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, such as injury reports or weather forecasts, potentially leading to divergences from sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts at prices they deem fair. The price of a contract represents the probability of that specific spread occurring in the first half of the Jaguars-Broncos game. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The current price reflects the aggregated views of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Jaguars-Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the league, and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the first half spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of purchase. The market’s resolution is independent of any pre-game predictions or analyses, relying solely on the final, official game data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Jaguars or the Broncos would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Even late-breaking news about betting trends or large wagers placed on Kalshi could trigger movement in the Jaguars-Broncos 1st half spread.