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$134.2b
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 1:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will be ahead on goals after the first 45 minutes plus stoppage time of the Ivory Coast vs Norway FIFA World Cup match. On Kalshi, Norway winning the first half stands at 95.0%, while a tie after the opening period is at 5.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official goal count at the end of the first half in the match scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Resolution is determined by comparing goals scored by each team during the first half of the match, measured from the start through the conclusion of stoppage time at the 45-minute mark. A team wins the first half by scoring more goals than its opponent during this period. If both teams score an equal number of goals during the first half, or if no goals are scored at all, the result is a tie. Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to a date more than two weeks from the original June 30, 2026 date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with established procedures.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their beliefs. Sportsbook odds typically incorporate sharp professional input and real-time adjustment to large bets, whereas prediction markets aggregate distributed trader conviction over time. For a first half winner outcome, comparing the two can reveal whether the crowd on Kalshi sees value that bookmakers have priced differently, though both should converge as event time approaches and information becomes more certain.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last matched buy or sell—and moves as new orders flow in. Traders holding shares profit if their outcome occurs; those on the wrong side lose their stake. The platform displays the current mid-price and spread, allowing you to see the gap between buyers and sellers. As match time approaches and new information emerges, prices adjust dynamically to reflect updated probabilities.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once the first half of the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which team is ahead on the scoreboard when the referee signals the end of the first half. No draws are possible in a first half winner market—one team must be leading. Resolution occurs shortly after the event, once the official result is confirmed and the platform processes the settlement.
Several catalysts can shift odds before kickoff and during the first half. Pre-match announcements of injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes for either team will trigger repricing as traders reassess strength. Weather conditions, venue factors, and recent form updates also influence sentiment. Once play begins, early goals, red cards, or tactical adjustments will cause sharp price swings as traders react to live action. Momentum shifts—one team dominating possession or creating clear chances—often drive traders to adjust positions. Late-breaking news about player fitness or team morale can also move the market in the final minutes before halftime.