TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 15, 12:30 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Hanyi Liu and Kosuke Shibano in the ITF Men Wuning, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hanyi Liu' if Hanyi Liu advances against Kosuke Shibano. This market will resolve to 'Kosuke Shibano' if Kosuke Shibano advances against Hanyi Liu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hanyi Liu and Kosuke Shibano in the ITF Men Wuning, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hanyi Liu' if Hanyi Liu advances against Kosuke Shibano. This market will resolve to 'Kosuke Shibano' if Kosuke Shibano advances against Hanyi Liu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sports betting sites, particularly if one venue has sharper information flow or different liquidity. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strongest or where informed traders see value.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell pressure. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one outcome, and the price reflects the collective probability estimate of all active traders. As more capital flows into one side, the price moves to rebalance supply and demand, ensuring the market stays responsive to new information and trader conviction throughout the event window.
This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official match result, determining which trader positions are correct. Until that point, prices will fluctuate as traders reassess probabilities based on player form, court conditions, head-to-head history, and any other factors they believe influence the final score.
Several catalysts could shift prices before resolution. Injury reports or withdrawal announcements involving either player would trigger sharp repricing. Recent tournament results, ranking changes, or updated head-to-head records may prompt traders to adjust their positions. Court surface conditions at the ITF Wuning venue, weather forecasts, and any last-minute lineup confirmations could also move this market. Additionally, if one player gains momentum through earlier rounds or if betting syndicates accumulate large positions, the implied probability could swing significantly.