TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 17, 4:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Duje Markovina in the ITF Men Varnamo, originally scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gilles Arnaud Bailly' if Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Duje Markovina. This market will resolve to 'Duje Markovina' if Duje Markovina advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, the ITF Varnamo: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Duje Markovina match is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into implied probabilities for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the cumulative positions of all traders; as more capital flows toward one player, that outcome's price rises and the opposing outcome falls. Polymarket's pricing mechanism ensures continuous liquidity, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at any time before Jun 17, 2026. The spread between buy and sell prices tightens as volume increases, making the market more efficient as the match approaches.
The ITF Varnamo: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Duje Markovina market resolves on Jun 17, 2026, following the completion of the match. The outcome is determined by the official result of the tennis match between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Duje Markovina at the ITF Varnamo tournament. Once the match concludes and the winner is confirmed, the prediction market settles accordingly, paying out traders who correctly predicted the result. Market resolution typically occurs shortly after the official tournament announcement.
Several factors could shift odds for the Bailly versus Markovina matchup before Jun 17, 2026. Recent tournament performance, player injuries, or withdrawal announcements would immediately impact pricing. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, and head-to-head history may influence trader positioning as the match date approaches. News about either player's form, ranking changes, or coaching adjustments could trigger significant price movements. Large trader positions entering the market may also drive volatility. As match day nears, increased trading volume typically reflects growing confidence in the outcome, potentially tightening odds around the consensus expectation.