TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 22, 6:30 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Picard and Laurin Aerne in the ITF Men Uriage, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Picard' if Mathys Picard advances against Laurin Aerne. This market will resolve to 'Laurin Aerne' if Laurin Aerne advances against Mathys Picard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mathys Picard and Laurin Aerne in the ITF Men Uriage, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Picard' if Mathys Picard advances against Laurin Aerne. This market will resolve to 'Laurin Aerne' if Laurin Aerne advances against Mathys Picard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market may show tighter or wider odds than traditional sportsbooks depending on trading volume and the confidence of participants. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd's conviction differs from bookmaker pricing, though both are valid indicators of perceived probability.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the cumulative bets placed on each outcome, with the cost to buy a share rising as more capital flows into that side. This mechanism ensures continuous pricing and allows traders to enter or exit at any time before the market closes, creating a dynamic reflection of collective expectation around the match result.
This market resolves around Jul 22, 2026, once the Picard vs Aerne match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official match result, with winning positions paid out according to the final odds at which they were held. Traders should monitor the event schedule and any official announcements to ensure they understand the exact timing and any potential delays or postponements that could affect resolution.
Several factors could shift this market significantly before resolution. Recent player form, head-to-head records, and court surface performance are key catalysts, as are injury reports or withdrawal announcements. Weather conditions on match day, seeding changes, or unexpected upsets in earlier rounds at the ITF Uriage tournament could also influence trader positioning. Media coverage, expert commentary, and betting patterns from sportsbooks may signal shifting expectations, prompting traders to adjust their positions and move the market price in response.