TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 18, 10:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Kayo Nishimura and Mao Mushika in the ITF Women Tokyo, originally scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kayo Nishimura' if Kayo Nishimura advances against Mao Mushika. This market will resolve to 'Mao Mushika' if Mao Mushika advances against Kayo Nishimura. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Kayo Nishimura and Mao Mushika in the ITF Women Tokyo, originally scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kayo Nishimura' if Kayo Nishimura advances against Mao Mushika. This market will resolve to 'Mao Mushika' if Mao Mushika advances against Kayo Nishimura. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different market structures and participant bases. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on which venue attracts more informed participants or liquidity. Comparing the two can reveal value opportunities, though prediction markets typically converge toward consensus as the event date approaches and new information emerges.
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the share price reflecting the implied probability of that result. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts in real time as new trades flow in, allowing participants to express their conviction by accumulating positions at current levels. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information or shifting sentiment about the match outcome.
This market resolves around Jun 19, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official match result—specifically, which player wins the ITF Tokyo singles event. Resolution occurs after the tournament organizers and sports data providers confirm the final score and winner, ensuring accuracy before payouts are distributed to winning traders.
Key catalysts include recent player form, head-to-head records, injury reports, and court surface conditions at the Tokyo venue. Betting activity from sharp traders or sudden shifts in public perception can also drive price swings. Tournament draws, seeding changes, and pre-match commentary from analysts may influence trader positioning. Weather conditions and player statements closer to match day could trigger final repricing as the event becomes more imminent and uncertainty narrows.