TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 4:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaspar Mathes and Marcel Zielinski in the ITF Men Saarlouis, originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaspar Mathes' if Kaspar Mathes advances against Marcel Zielinski. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Kaspar Mathes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaspar Mathes and Marcel Zielinski in the ITF Men Saarlouis, originally scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaspar Mathes' if Kaspar Mathes advances against Marcel Zielinski. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Kaspar Mathes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Traders on Polymarket may incorporate information or analysis that sportsbooks haven't yet priced in, or vice versa. Comparing the two can reveal where smart money sees value, though both are valid indicators of perceived likelihood for the match outcome.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares, with the current price reflecting the aggregate probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates on an automated market maker model where supply and demand determine the odds in real time. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, prices adjust continuously. This mechanism ensures that the market price incorporates available information and trader expectations about who will win the match.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the actual result of the match as documented by official ITF records or reputable sports news sources. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new developments or match information become available, allowing the market price to evolve right up to the resolution deadline.
Several factors could shift prices in this market before resolution. Recent form and head-to-head records between the players often drive early moves, as do injury reports or withdrawal announcements. Court conditions, surface preference, and tournament momentum can also influence trader sentiment. Closer to the match date, warm-up results or official lineups may trigger repricing. Real-time match developments—if the event is streamed or reported live—could cause sharp moves as traders react to in-play information and adjust their positions accordingly.