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ITF Porto: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Patrick Schoen
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the ITF Porto match between Coulibaly and Schoen?

Volume:
$229,989

Eliakim Coulibaly

 - Kalshi

Eliakim Coulibaly - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 2:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Eliakim Coulibaly

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125,470
N/A
N/A
$74,305
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Porto: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Patrick Schoen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Patrick Schoen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102,054
N/A
N/A
$72,397
Settled
No
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 4

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Eliakim Coulibaly and Patrick Schoen in the ITF Men's M25 Porto tournament, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 6:30 AM ET. The markets track both match completion and match winner outcomes across multiple prediction platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket separates completion and winner markets with different edge-case handling for retirements and walkovers, while Kalshi uses a unified "Yes" outcome for any winner after a ball is played, creating scope and logic misalignment.Hero tip: Focus on the specific market you hold. Polymarket completion bettors should hedge against retirement risk (resolves No). Polymarket winner bettors benefit from retirement scenarios (resolves to advancing player). Kalshi bettors get Yes for any ball-played winner outcome. If match ends via walkover before play starts, Polymarket winner resolves 50-50 while Kalshi has no explicit rule—assume unresolvable or platform discretion.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Dual-market structure: Completion market requires full normal play (No for any forfeit/retirement/walkover/cancellation/7+ day delay). Winner market resolves to advancing player if retirement/default occurs after match begins, but 50-50 for pre-match walkovers or cancellations. Primary source: Official ITF statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
  • Kalshi: Single winner market: Resolves Yes if either player wins after a ball has been played. No distinction between normal completion and retirement/default. Does not address walkover, cancellation, or delay scenarios explicitly. Primary source: Official ITF information.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Eliakim Coulibaly and Patrick Schoen in the ITF Men Porto, originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Eliakim Coulibaly' if Eliakim Coulibaly advances against Patrick Schoen. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Schoen' if Patrick Schoen advances against Eliakim Coulibaly. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event covers the professional tennis match between Eliakim Coulibaly and Patrick Schoen in the 2026 M25 Porto Round of 16. Resolution requires that a ball be played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, all related markets resolve to $0.50. Should a player withdraw or forfeit after the match has started, that player's market resolves to No. If the match is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and will close following the rescheduled match completion, provided this occurs within two weeks of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate differently from traditional sportsbooks. Rather than setting odds themselves, these platforms let traders buy and sell shares that reflect their belief in each outcome, creating a crowdsourced price discovery mechanism. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed odds and manage risk through their own models and margin. Prediction market odds often incorporate real-time information and can shift rapidly based on breaking news or player updates, whereas sportsbook odds may lag or remain sticky. For this match, comparing the two can reveal whether the broader trading community sees value that traditional oddsmakers have missed.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence pricing. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market designs—such as order-book depth, settlement rules, or promotional incentives—that cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, traders on one platform may react faster to breaking news than those on the other, creating arbitrage opportunities. These spreads typically narrow as informed traders exploit the difference, but they can persist if liquidity is thin or if traders on one venue have conviction the other side is mispriced.

Several catalysts could shift odds before the match begins. Recent tournament results, player injuries, or withdrawal announcements will likely trigger sharp repricing. Court conditions at Porto—such as surface type or weather forecasts—can favor one player's style and prompt traders to reposition. Head-to-head history, ranking changes, or news about either player's form or fitness will also influence sentiment. In the final hours before the match, late money often flows toward one side, reflecting last-minute information or professional trader conviction. Monitoring player social media, injury reports, and ITF official updates is essential for staying ahead of market moves.