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ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate
polymarket
kalshi

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate

Volume:
$352,609

Carlos Alcaraz

 - Kalshi

Carlos Alcaraz - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 2:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Carlos Alcaraz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$239,522
N/A
N/A
$144,791
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Roman Safiullin

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112,069
N/A
N/A
$95,887
Settled
No
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,018
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay: Santiago Giamichelle vs Carlos Maria Zarate Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks who will win the first set in the Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128. The aggregated consensus probability shows Carlos Alcaraz winning set 1 with 95.0%, while Roman Safiullin has a 7.0% chance. Data comes from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official ITF match statistics. Watch for the match scheduled to complete the first set by August 30, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use the same core logic: the market resolves based on the winner of the first set in the Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128, with specific handling for cancellations and incompletions.Primary resolution logic: Official ITF match statistics

Core resolution logic:

  • If Roman Safiullin wins the first set, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • If Carlos Alcaraz wins the first set, the market resolves to 'No'.
  • If the match is canceled, postponed, or the first set is not completed by the deadline, the market resolves to 50-50 or remains open based on platform-specific rules.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled before the first set begins or is not completed by the deadline, the market resolves to 50-50 on Polymarket and remains open or resolves to 50-50 on Kalshi depending on the specific market rules.
  • Incompleted First Set: If the first set is not completed (e.g., due to retirement, default, or disqualification), the market resolves based on the completed portion of the set or to 50-50 if no clear winner can be determined.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the completion of the first set or by the deadline (September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) if the match is canceled or not completed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Santiago Giamichelle and Carlos Maria Zarate in the ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina), clay, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Santiago Giamichelle' if Santiago Giamichelle advances against Carlos Maria Zarate. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Maria Zarate' if Carlos Maria Zarate advances against Santiago Giamichelle. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which player wins the first set of the Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round Of 128. If the match does not occur before any play due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, it resolves to a fair price. Postponements or delays keep the market open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires during the match, markets can resolve based on completed play; otherwise, unresolved markets settle at a fair market price determined by the Exchange. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.