TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 8, 11:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Kalyakina and Meiling Wang in the ITF Women Maanshan, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Kalyakina' if Maria Kalyakina advances against Meiling Wang. This market will resolve to 'Meiling Wang' if Meiling Wang advances against Maria Kalyakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Kalyakina and Meiling Wang in the ITF Women Maanshan, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Kalyakina' if Maria Kalyakina advances against Meiling Wang. This market will resolve to 'Meiling Wang' if Meiling Wang advances against Maria Kalyakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate distributed beliefs through continuous trading. For tennis matches, sportsbook odds may emphasize historical ratings and betting patterns, whereas this market incorporates real-time trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where professional oddsmakers and decentralized forecasters disagree on match likelihood.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the cumulative trades of all participants, with shares that cost more representing higher implied probability. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the price adjusts in real time. This continuous pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects current expectations about which player will win.
This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official match result—specifically, which player wins the ITF Maanshan tournament match. Resolution occurs after the event is confirmed through established tennis reporting channels, ensuring accuracy before final settlement.
Several factors could shift this market before resolution. Player injury reports or withdrawal announcements would dramatically alter odds. Recent tournament performance, head-to-head records, and court surface suitability may influence trader positioning. Weather conditions on match day and any last-minute lineup changes could trigger repricing. Media coverage highlighting either player's form, ranking movements, or coaching changes may also prompt traders to adjust their positions as new information becomes available.