TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 16, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Manon Leonard and Alice Gillan in the ITF Women Guimaraes, originally scheduled for June 9, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manon Leonard' if Manon Leonard advances against Alice Gillan. This market will resolve to 'Alice Gillan' if Alice Gillan advances against Manon Leonard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often differ from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect decentralized trader sentiment rather than bookmaker models. Sportsbooks typically incorporate margin and risk management, while prediction markets price outcomes based on direct supply and demand. For the Leonard vs Gillan match, comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to major sportsbooks can reveal whether the crowd is more or less confident in a particular player than professional oddsmakers are.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the ITF Guimaraes Leonard vs Gillan match is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into implied probabilities for each outcome. Traders buy and sell shares representing a player's victory, and the current price reflects the marginal probability. As match details, player form, or court conditions emerge, traders adjust positions, moving prices in real time. The top outcome currently reflects market consensus ahead of the Jun 16, 2026 resolution.
Several factors could shift market prices before Jun 16, 2026. Changes in player rankings, recent tournament results, or injury announcements involving Leonard or Gillan would likely trigger trading activity. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, or head-to-head history releases may also influence sentiment. News about either player's form, coaching changes, or fitness updates could prompt traders to reassess probabilities. Real-time match developments, if the event streams early, would drive final price adjustments as traders react to live play.