TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 18, 6:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Fangran Tian and Ariana Arseneault in the ITF Women Guimaraes, originally scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fangran Tian' if Fangran Tian advances against Ariana Arseneault. This market will resolve to 'Ariana Arseneault' if Ariana Arseneault advances against Fangran Tian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Fangran Tian and Ariana Arseneault in the ITF Women Guimaraes, originally scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fangran Tian' if Fangran Tian advances against Ariana Arseneault. This market will resolve to 'Ariana Arseneault' if Ariana Arseneault advances against Fangran Tian. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect decentralized trader consensus rather than bookmaker pricing and margins. Sportsbooks build in juice and adjust lines for liability; prediction markets typically offer tighter spreads and faster price discovery. For this ITF Guimaraes match, comparing Polymarket odds to major sportsbooks can reveal which venue prices Tian or Arseneault more favorably. Prediction markets often react faster to breaking news like injuries or weather, while sportsbooks may lag slightly behind.
On Polymarket, the ITF Guimaraes match is priced through binary outcome contracts reflecting the probability each player wins. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares, with the contract price directly representing implied win probability. Polymarket's automated market maker adjusts prices based on order flow, so heavy buying of Tian shares drives her price up and Arseneault's down. Liquidity depth and recent volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information about player fitness, court conditions, or head-to-head records.
The market resolves on Jun 18, 2026 following the completion of the ITF Guimaraes match between Fangran Tian and Ariana Arseneault. Resolution is determined by the official match result recorded by the ITF. The winner of the match determines which outcome contract settles to 100 cents, while the losing outcome settles to zero. Any market-specific rules or edge cases are documented in the event terms before trading begins.
Key catalysts for price movement include official injury announcements or withdrawal news from either player, recent tournament results or form trends, head-to-head history releases, and court surface conditions at the venue. Weather forecasts closer to match day can shift odds if rain or extreme heat favors one player's style. Betting patterns and large trades on Polymarket may also trigger momentum shifts as traders react to perceived value. Player rankings updates or coaching changes announced before Jun 18, 2026 could influence market sentiment on Tian or Arseneault's chances.