TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 22, 4:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Van Der Meerschen and Jacopo Bilardo in the ITF Men Gubbio, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Van Der Meerschen' if Martin Van Der Meerschen advances against Jacopo Bilardo. This market will resolve to 'Jacopo Bilardo' if Jacopo Bilardo advances against Martin Van Der Meerschen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Van Der Meerschen and Jacopo Bilardo in the ITF Men Gubbio, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Van Der Meerschen' if Martin Van Der Meerschen advances against Jacopo Bilardo. This market will resolve to 'Jacopo Bilardo' if Jacopo Bilardo advances against Martin Van Der Meerschen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different trader bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets aggregate the collective belief of traders who have real money at stake. This market may show higher or lower implied probability than traditional sportsbooks, depending on which venue's participants have superior information or conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where smart money disagrees with bookmaker consensus.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a price between 0 and 1 (or 0–100 cents), and traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by correctly predicting the eventual resolution. The spread between bid and ask reflects current liquidity and uncertainty; tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and trading activity.
This market resolves around Jul 22, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will reflect which player wins the ITF Gubbio event. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell positions as odds shift. Resolution is final once the official result is confirmed and the market is settled.
Several factors could shift odds before Jul 22, 2026. Injury announcements or withdrawal news about either player would trigger sharp repricing. Recent tournament results, ranking changes, or head-to-head history emerging in media coverage often prompt trader repositioning. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, and betting syndicate activity can also influence sentiment. Unexpected lineup changes or coaching updates may cause volatility. Monitor tennis news outlets and player social media for catalysts that could reshape this market's trajectory.